Mean Reversion Scalping on Catapult — Beginner Strategy

Geometric Brownian Motion generates charts with statistically predictable variance properties. On short time frames — 1 to 5 minutes — extreme percentage moves are rare by definition. The math behind GBM constrains how far a chart can deviate from its starting value within a session.

The core idea: a position that has already moved 3–5 standard deviations from its session open has a statistically higher probability of reverting toward the mean before the session ends. You are not predicting the future — you are fading improbable continuation.

Entry rule: wait for the first 10–15% of the session to resolve. If the chart has moved more than 3x its typical session range in one direction, consider a position in the opposite direction. Use the smallest available leverage — 1x to 2x. Never use high leverage on mean-reversion setups; the expected gain is modest and the tail risk of continuation will destroy you.

Exit rule: define your exit before entry. Either you exit at the session end, or you set a mental stop at the point where the move would represent 5+ standard deviations (rare enough that continuation beyond there becomes genuinely unpredictable).

The key discipline is this: mean reversion works on average, not on every trade. You will have losing streaks of 5–10 trades. Size accordingly. Never risk more than 1–2% of your trading bankroll on any single scalp.

Why this works on Catapult specifically: unlike real crypto markets, GBM charts do not have news events, whale manipulation, or order book dynamics that can sustain extreme moves indefinitely. The chart is pure mathematics, and extreme deviations from the mean always carry statistical gravity pulling them back.

Start with 1-minute sessions. Watch 20–30 sessions without trading to calibrate your intuition for what constitutes a ‘large’ move on the specific chart parameters you are watching. Then start with the smallest position size available.